The Trend

Gap Trading Fundamentals

All of a sudden, there’s a gap in the chart of your favorite stock.

Surprise news, earnings, something unexpected caused a bout of extreme optimism or pessimism that resulted in the move.

Look at Palo Alto Networks (PANW), for example.  In early June 2017, shares closed at $118.59.  However, shortly after the close, news of a massive cyber attack began hitting headlines.  Orders come flooding in overnight.  The next day, the stock opens at $140.

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Why These Billionaires are Moving to Cash...

Mohamed El-Erian has never been a typical investor.

His understanding of the very crosscurrents impacting the investment world is impeccable.

In 1999, he dumped $2 billion of Argentine debt two years before the country defaulted.

In 2002, he took a bullish position on...

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Commodities That Are Gaining Momentum

There’s little doubt that a bottom has been reached in most commodities, especially in industrial metals, like copper and aluminum.

Let’s start with copper.

The metal – already up about 35% on the year – could see further upside, as...

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Federal Reserve Hikes by 0.25%...

Let’s hope the Fed got it right.

The Fed raised its key interest rate by 0.25% this week, signaling confidence in an improving economy. 

It was the second time in 10 years the Fed has raised rates. The first came with disastrous results last December 2015.  While the rate hike signifies we no longer need the Fed’s crutches, that’s not exactly the case.

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DOW 20,000: What You Are Not Being Told...

Global markets are hitting new highs.

The press is clamoring for Dow 20,000… even 21,000.

There’s this incredible wave of euphoria that we’ve seen since Trump was elected. The US dollar has been skyrocketing.  Companies are announcing they’re bringing jobs back to the States.  Financial stocks are running on speculation of lax laws.

And we’re witnessing what may be the biggest post-election rally in history.

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What Just Happened to Biotech?

“Price gouging like this in the specialty drug market is outrageous. Tomorrow I’ll lay out a plan to take it on…”

That’s what Hillary Clinton tweeted in September 2015.

The impact of such news on biotech was devastating.

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The Fed is about to make a Big Mistake - Again

Last December 2015, the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 0.25%.

Even that was too much. We weren’t prepared. Global markets lost trillions.

U.S. markets lost more than 2,100 points in weeks.

Unfortunately, the central bank is about to make the same mistake again.

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OPEC Cuts: This Hasn’t Happened Since 2008

It happened.

For the first time in eight years, OPEC members agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day to 32.5 million. 

As a result, the price of oil soared 8.2% to $48.93 and could push higher to...

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The Thanksgiving Effect You May Not Be Aware of…

About 75% of the time since the end of World War II, markets have rallied over the Thanksgiving holiday. In fact, the Wednesday before the holiday and the Friday following have shown higher gains than your normal Wednesday and Friday.

This year was...

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Markets Could Fall 15%, If This Is True

By all accounts, the Fed Reserve is ready to hike rates.

According to the CME Group, there’s now a 95.4% probability the central bank could raise rates by 50-75bps on December 14, 2016.

If true, the markets could...

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The Marijuana Vote: Controversial or Not, It’s Worth Billions… to You

Talk of legalizing marijuana in the U.S. grew like a… well, you get where I’m going.

As controversial as the topic is, it’s also one of the most explosive.

Four states had already legalized its recreational use, expanding the market 17% to $5.4 billion in 2015.  In Colorado, marijuana sales exploded $996.18 million the same year.

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The Commodity Bear Market is Dead

Five years after it began, the commodities bear is dead.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index -- down as much as 56% since then – is now up 21% since 2016 began, a strong indication that...

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The Federal Reserve: To Hike or Not to Hike?

If you thought the chaos was bad leading up to the U.S. elections, wait until December.

That’s when the Federal Reserve is very likely to raise interest rates by a quarter point.  And if that happens, we could see a repeat of the incredible sell-off we saw in January.

The Fed is under the assumption that all is well in the economy.

And by some accounts...

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Gold: The One Clear Winner of the U.S. Election

Abysmal. Terrible. Confusing. Cluster… you get the idea.

These are just some of the words traders and investors have been using to describe the market in recent weeks. 

With the U.S. election next week, a disintegrating OPEC deal, and the Federal Reserve prepared to raise rates in December, there’s been a...

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Q3 GDP Growth: Thank You, Soybeans?

After quarters of 1% growth, we finally got the news we were hoping for.

The kick in the pants that would goose the markets, and the perception all is well.

The U.S. government reported that GDP expanded at a 2.9% annual pace in the third quarter of 2016 – a nice jump from the first half of the year when we grew by 1%.

It was also well ahead of consensus estimate for 2.5%.

But before you cheer the “great” news that comes just days ahead of elections, know this:

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The Chances of an OPEC Deal are Slim

When OPEC met the other month, there was a general sigh of relief.

Granted, all they did was agree to agree to potentially curb production in November. 

But it was a start.  And no one expected it.

Its part of the reason oil has...

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OPEC Oil Production: Why We Don’t Expect a November Deal

It’s an absolute mess.

After dipping to a low of $39 in August, oil rallied to a high of $51.19, on hopes that OPEC and non-OPEC countries can put aside their difference and curb oil production.

Even Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the country was ready to join OPEC efforts to curb supply. Unfortunately, there’s just one small problem with that...

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